Repercusiones económicas en Estados Unidos ante la terminación del TLCAN: un análisis subnacional
Keywords:
paradiplomacy, subnational states, United States, NAFTA, Donald Trump, economic performance
Abstract
This article analyzes the implications for U.S. states before the eventual termination of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In such purpose, it identifies the subnational states of the United States, as well as the economic, trade and productive sectors that could be affected by President Trump's policies and actions, especially the ending of NAFTA. In this sense, the level of economic dependence of U.S. subnational states is examined, mainly with respect to their trade relations with both Mexico and Canada, but also with respect to the number of jobs and supply chains that depend on such relations. This article observes the economic landscape in the region, especially economic indicators such as exports, imports, number of jobs and productive activities. Economic paradiplomacy is used as a theoretical and conceptual framework to explain the growing participation of subnational states in international economic relations.
References
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Ell, Kellie (2018). “Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue says pulling out of NAFTA would mean absolute destruction for the economy”, CNBC, 10 de enero. Disponible en: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/chamber-of-commerce-ceo-says-pulling-out-of-nafta-would-be-a-mistake.html, consultado en enero de 2018.
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Kiersz, Andy (2017). “3 maps show why NAFTA is so important to the U.S.”, Business Insider, 21 de noviembre, disponible en: http://www.businessinsider.com/3-maps-show-why-nafta-is-important-2017-11, consultado en diciembre de 2017.
Kincaid, John (2013). “The international competence of US states and their local governments”, en Francisco Aldecoa (ed.), Paradiplomacy in action: the foreign relations of subnational governments. Londres – Nueva York: Routledge.
Lecours, André (2008). “Political issues of paradiplomacy: lessons from the developed world”, Netherlands Institute of International Relations' Clingendael'.
Mauldin, John (2017). “US Export Data Reveals the Nation's Stark Economic Divisions”, 17 de marzo. Disponible en: https://www.equities.com/news/us-export-data-reveals-the-nation-s-stark-economic-divisions, consultado en abril de 2017.
McHugh, James T. (2015). “Paradiplomacy, protodiplomacy and the foreign policy aspirations of Quebec and other Canadian provinces”, Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 21(3): 238-256.
Murphy, John G. (2017). “Which states would be hit hardest by withdrawing from NAFTA?”, https://www.uschamber.com/series/modernizing-nafta/which-states-would-be-hit-hardest-withdrawing-nafta, consultado en marzo de 2018.
Notimex (2018). “TLCAN ha traído crecimiento a Texas y EU: Gobernador Abbott”, Excélsior, 25 de enero.
Office of the United States Trade Representative (2018). “U.S.-Mexico Trade Facts”, disponible en: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico, consultada en mayo de 2018.
Paquin, Stephane (2010). “Federalism and compliance with international agreements: Belgium and Canada compared”, The Hague Journal of Diplomacy, 5(1-2): 173-197.
Perry, Mark J. (2017). “Maps of the day: Every US state’s top international trade partner for imports and exports in 2016”, 3 de marzo. Disponible en: http://www.aei.org/publication/maps-of-the-day-every-us-states-top-international-trading-partner-for-imports-and-exports-in-2016/, consultado en abril de 2017.
Pierre, Jon (2013). Globalization and governance. Edward Elgar Publishing.
Rifkin, Jeremy (1994). The end of work. The decline of global labor force and the dawn of the post-market era, New York, USA: G.P. Putnam’s Sons.
Sarquís, David J. (2015). “El contexto histórico para la reflexión teórica sobre el fenómeno de la paradiplomacia en el mundo globalizado”, Desafíos, 28 (I): 35-78.
Schnurman, Mitchell (2017). “Memo to President Trump: Cut off Mexico and Texas' economy hits a wall”, Dallas News, 31 de enero. Disponible en: https://www.dallasnews.com/business/business/2017/01/31/memo-president-trump-mexico-helps-make-texas-economy-first, consultado en abril de 2017.
Secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores (2014). “América del Norte del siglo XXI: construyendo la región más dinámica y competitiva del mundo”, 19 de febrero, disponible en: http://www.visionindustrial.com.mx/industria/noticias/america-del-norte-del-siglo-xxi-la-region-mas-competitiva-del-mundo, consultado en enero de 2019.
The Economist (2017). “The manufacturing jobs delusion”, The Economist, 4 de enero.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce (2017), “NAFTA works for America”, 31 de octubre, https://www.uschamber.com/nafta-works, consultado en enero de 2018.
Vega Cánovas, Gustavo (2015). “El Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte en sus veinte años. Balance y perspectivas”, en Marcela Guerra Castillo (coord.). América del Norte: retos y oportunidades en el siglo XXI, México: Cámara de Senadores.
Zepeda, Roberto (2013). Neoliberalismo, desempeño económico y mercados laborales en Latinoamérica: un enfoque comparativo, Ánfora, vol. 20, núm. 35, julio-diciembre, pp. 13-40
Wilson, Christopher (2017). “Growing Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico”, Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, Mexico Institute. Marzo.
